tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810142508063082905.post5745894220417516834..comments2023-08-15T09:58:27.017+01:00Comments on The Last Oprichnik: Why Stop at 50%?Jasper Kenthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06629648886901894662noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810142508063082905.post-8920536838308632812011-04-26T10:54:02.566+01:002011-04-26T10:54:02.566+01:00I agree on the Lockheed Martin issue - unless they...I agree on the Lockheed Martin issue - unless they decide that the software needs to be done in C#.Jasper Kenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06629648886901894662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810142508063082905.post-23069900036992001532011-04-26T10:51:10.861+01:002011-04-26T10:51:10.861+01:00I am even more suspicious of the assurances of the...I am even more suspicious of the assurances of the Yes campaign than I am of the scaremongering of the No campaign. Basically, since very few of the potential voters in the referendum are going to examine the options even in superficial detail, both sides are feverishly misrepresenting the likely consequences of the referendum in order to win. <br /><br />I'm not sure that electronic voting machines are essential - it seems to me that distinguishing handwritten numbers is something that a human would do pretty well - but anyone easily discouraged by a more expensive voting system would do well to vote No. I for one will not be happy when it turns out the Lockheed Martin have just got the contract for implementing the counting process.Sordelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11569020679591270699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810142508063082905.post-22885752184232588012011-04-26T08:56:10.206+01:002011-04-26T08:56:10.206+01:00You raise an interesting point about electronic vo...You raise an interesting point about electronic voting. Representatives of the 'Yes' camp have generally been assuring us that AV will not require the introduction of voting machines. However, there is no 'Yes Manifesto' - all we get to vote on is the wording of the referendum, which doesn't go into such detail.<br /><br />What redress will the voters have if, having accepted AV, we discover that after all it is best implemented with voting machines, or if any other of the claims made by proponents proves to be false?<br /><br />(The same argument could be put against the 'No' camp, but since we already have FPTP, we're unlikely to be surprised by its implementation.)Jasper Kenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06629648886901894662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810142508063082905.post-4243825954713210782011-04-25T12:58:01.829+01:002011-04-25T12:58:01.829+01:00I suspect that, in practice, all preferences of al...I suspect that, in practice, all preferences of all voters will be recorded before the "count" formally begins. Clearly, if voting is performed electronically, then the data will be recorded. If some sort of paper ballot is retained then error checking will be important. Any human or "robot" (OCR) counter will need to be clear that the scribble next to candidate "B" really is a "2" and this will need them to check that nothing that looks like a "2" is next to any other candidate etc. In a field of 6 candidates one would expect (assuming that all six numbers can be recognised with equal error rates) nearly 65 times fewer errors to be made by introducing the requirement that each number only occurs once, for example. <br /><br />If the data is available I think it should be published - for the political parties/media/voters to make of what they wish.Stephen Binghamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12367164530971199544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810142508063082905.post-707572999896502852011-04-25T11:57:52.258+01:002011-04-25T11:57:52.258+01:00Hear! Hear!Hear! Hear!Jasper Kenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06629648886901894662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810142508063082905.post-22856156269922102522011-04-25T11:55:37.428+01:002011-04-25T11:55:37.428+01:00I's surprised there are so many with the 50% m...I's surprised there are so many with the 50% margin under FPTP ... they are certainly called "safe" seats for a reason. It may be that the bandwagoning effect would be cut and that more people would vote in safe seats ... but, honestly, I'm not sure that either effect would be enough to cut very far into the winning margin on first votes in safe seats.<br /><br />There's so much we don't know, yet what do the media cover? In-fighting in the coalition.Sordelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11569020679591270699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810142508063082905.post-87810656898008369512011-04-25T11:39:12.667+01:002011-04-25T11:39:12.667+01:00Hard to guess as you say, but I think your scenari...Hard to guess as you say, but I think your scenario is unlikely. At the moment there are several hundred seats where the MP has over 50% under FPTP. Other things being equal, those would be first round wins under AV, and therefore we learn more by continuing the count.Jasper Kenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06629648886901894662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810142508063082905.post-39186719753158664552011-04-25T11:31:14.079+01:002011-04-25T11:31:14.079+01:00We're not sure yet how a declaration works: pe...We're not sure yet how a declaration works: perhaps the information would be transparent anyway.<br /><br />Also, we don't know how these votes will come out in practice. The minor parties have so few votes that the likelihood of an election being settled by second, third, fourth votes will be, I imagine, low in many constituencies. It may well be that in the overwhelming majority of contituencies only once the third place party's votes are counted will the 50% line be crossed.<br /><br />If that guess is right (and it may apply even in the majority of what are currently regarded as safe seats) then the "rump" of seats without full counts may look even more anomalous, in which case your suggestion goes from being sensible to being virtually unavoidable.Sordelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11569020679591270699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810142508063082905.post-64082288320517620702011-04-25T11:30:07.910+01:002011-04-25T11:30:07.910+01:00And, of course, they will choose the statistic tha...And, of course, they will choose the statistic that best serves them. A first-round winner who still only managed to get 51% after the final round will focus on the round, not the percentage.Jasper Kenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06629648886901894662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810142508063082905.post-14306675209300888592011-04-25T11:26:04.544+01:002011-04-25T11:26:04.544+01:00I'm happy with this, publishing the 'final...I'm happy with this, publishing the 'final round' winning percentage gives something comparable if people need something to compare, but I think I'm with @Sordel, being a 'first round winner' will be the aim and the thing they shout about.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10580970047314917527noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810142508063082905.post-87883877975439564882011-04-25T11:07:00.898+01:002011-04-25T11:07:00.898+01:00No, I'm genuine in this. I don't much want...No, I'm genuine in this. I don't much want AV, but if we have it, it should be like this.<br /><br />And you're right about the MPs gloating if this doesn't happen; I just think condensing that sort of comparison into a single percentage would be much clearer for everyone, rather than just an arcane measurement that MPs use amongst themselves.Jasper Kenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06629648886901894662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1810142508063082905.post-76473393369114650112011-04-25T10:53:56.062+01:002011-04-25T10:53:56.062+01:00I can't see why this would be a bad idea. That...I can't see why this would be a bad idea. That worries me. I feel that you are leading with your left and then about to hit me with your right.<br /><br />Of course, in reality a distinction will be drawn, because it will be known which "round" of voting elected the MP. If you think that people won't be swanning around in Westminster gloating that they are "first round winners" and mocking those with a "ninth round" majority, you are insane.<br /><br />But, personally, I'd like to see the counting completed.Sordelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11569020679591270699noreply@blogger.com